Happy Wednesday everyone! Tonight we have 11 games on the slate, so again, a little more than usual for the Wednesday split slate. I believe you can blame the summer heat for more evening games on Wednesday.
There are a lot of solid pitching options tonight and on paper, there looks like one team that I can see being the chalk and that’s the Washington Nationals at home against the woeful Wade Miley. We aren’t done talking about the Nats, but first some housekeeping.
Make sure you are visiting dailybaseballdata.com for all of today’s BvP stats, including the early games.
Before you read my picks, tonight is not a great night for BvP. There’s a lot of very small sample sizes and no darlings. I am still following my cash game/GPP/pitcher format, but I have only 4 cash game bats and an extra pitcher for tonight. Pitching is definitely going to be more important tonight than stacking a bunch of expensive bats, IMO.
Anyway, pick time!
Ryan Zimmerman – 1B – Nationals – vs. Wade Miley – DraftKings – $4,800
|BB% vs. L||ISO vs. L||Hard% vs. L||BAA vs. L||wOBA vs. L||wRC+ vs. L||Zimmerman BvP|
|13.0 %||0.25||40.7 %||0.203||0.315||94||5-for-8, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB|
Analysis: As I said earlier, the Nationals will be popular. Lots of right-handed pop in their lineup with two guys that can hit lefties well (Murphy and Harper). I think that choice is the right call because Miley has been awful. He’s given up 18 ER in his last four starts, including back-to-back 6 ER performances. Zimmerman, meanwhile, is on a nice heater, with hits in five straight games. I expect Zimmerman to still be fairly low-owned in tournaments because of his price at a premium position, but I feel he has a safe floor here for cash games, too.
Wilson Ramos – C – Nationals – vs. Wade Miley – DraftKings – $4,000
|BB% vs. L||ISO vs. L||Hard% vs. L||BAA vs. L||wOBA vs. L||wRC+ vs. L||Ramos BvP|
|9.4 %||0.329||32.1 %||0.318||0.415||160||3-for-5, 1 2B|
Analysis: Ramos is my favorite play of the night. He’s much cheaper than many of his other RH, National counterparts. Catcher isn’t a position I like to pay up for a lot, unless it’s Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy, but Ramos is very much becoming just as much of a reliable option from the backstop position. Ramos has thrived at home this season, sporting a .324 batting average with 10 home runs. Ramos had Lasik surgery on his eyes in the offseason and not only has he said its helped him at the plate, he’s showing it’s helped him at the plate.
Dee Gordon – 2B – Marlins – vs. Dillon Gee – DraftKings – $4,400
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Gordon BvP|
|6.3 %||0.059||17.5 %||0.281||0.291||78||4-for-10, 1 SB|
Analysis: Now that Dee is back from his long PED suspension, how much do you trust his ability? He picked up 3 hits last night and I think he’s still more than capable of reaching base consistently and his wheels are still off the charts. At $4,400, he’s not as cash game viable as you might like, but he’s going to get the opportunities at the leadoff position against a very weak opposing pitcher.
Jose Reyes – 3B/SS – Mets – vs. Carlos Martinez – DraftKings – $3,300
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Reyes BvP|
|5.4 %||0.159||29.8 %||0.246||0.292||83||2-for-6, 1 SB|
Analysis: Back and forth the position eligibility goes for Reyes on DK. He was a SS, then just a 3B, now he has dual eligibility again. Hopefully that sticks around the rest of the season. I am a firm believer that a player should keep the position he started the season at and only gain eligibility for another once he has played a minimum amount of games/innings. Anyway, I got sidetracked. Reyes might look like a tournament play, but he is very much a solid cash game option. He hits at the top of the order, his price is way down due to his matchup, but he faces C-Lo-Mart, a pitcher notorious for his struggles with lefty bats. With his dual eligibility, that makes him even more of a solid cash game option.
Jake Lamb – 3B – Diamondbacks – vs. Julio Teheran – DraftKings – $3,900 – GPP Play of the Night
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Lamb BvP|
|9.4 %||0.294||44.4 %||0.285||0.387||138||3-for-5, 3 2B|
Analysis: I do have a GPP play of the night, but this “honor” could’ve gone to almost everyone listed above. This is an unusual night for BvP plays. Lamb has seen his price dwindle after being in the upper tier for quite some time. He’s up against Teheran, who has put together a very solid season up to this point. However, he’s in his second start since coming off of injury and he’s due for more regression by the time the season is over. Chase Field is a perfect opportunity for that to happen. Weirdly, last year Teheran couldn’t get out of his own way on the road, but would dominate at home. This year, he’s actually pitcher better away from Turner Field. He’s been a pitcher who has struggled with lefties in his career, so Lamb, in the heart of the D-Backs order, makes a perfect choice to buy low at a premium position.
Zack Greinke – SP – Diamondbacks – vs. Atlanta Braves – DraftKings – $9,600
|7.84||1.16||0.305||4.21||3.83||22-for-100, 5 2B, 3 HR, 24 Ks|
Analysis: Speaking of the Diamondbacks, Greinke made me look good last week against the Padres (not that it was a secret that he was in a stellar position). Now he gets another cellar dweller in the offense category – the Braves. Atlanta has quietly been a sneaky, pesky team of late, but against elite pitchers, I will side with the pitcher. Greinke hasn’t been his best this season and the Braves don’t strikeout as much as we would like, but Greinke’s upside is always there and his price is down. All aboard!
Rick Porcello – SP – Red Sox – vs. Tampa Bay Rays – DraftKings – $11,900
|7.47||1.04||0.267||3.22||3.86||41-for-142, 8 2B, 3 HR, 31 Ks|
Analysis: Speaking of pricing discrepancies, I think Porcello falls on the inflated, high-end side of things tonight. I wouldn’t normally pay up this much for him, but he is in a prime spot. He’s dominated the Rays in his career, but the Ks aren’t as high as we would like. He has had their number this season as well, owning a 3-0 record while giving up just 5 ER in 20 IP with 22 Ks. He’s averaged 26.1 FPP vs. Tampa Bay in 2016, and that’s clearly why he is so expensive on that site tonight. For the record, Yu is my absolute favorite play at pitcher, but he didn’t have much exposure to Reds hitters.