Today begins the weekly MLB tradition of split slates on Wednesdays. Without assuming too much, but this day is split mostly for travel purposes.
I hate the split, but I also love it.
I hate it for two reasons: 1. The Rangers might play when I am at work. 2. Because I like to have full slates for DFS.
I love it for one reason: If I totally bomb one slate because of my choice in pitchers, then at least I can make up for it in the second wave, or vice versa.
For now, we’ve decided to provide an Expert Consensus only for the evening games. Until that changes, I will only provide my BvP picks based on the night cap.
Last night, I didn’t feel very comfortable with the pitching data to provide a pitcher, but that changes today.
I’ve also thrown a bit of a curve ball regarding traditional data in favor of a BvP hitter, but hopefully it will be hanging curve and we can take it deep.
Also don’t forget that all stats below are from dailybaseballdata.com. Use my cheap plug to check out the work those guys do over there. The site is a great reference and tool for DFS baseball.
So to set the mood, I leave with you with Mariah Carey throwing out a first pitch.
Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves – vs. Stephen Strasburg
BvP: 12-for-28, 2 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 6 BB
Analysis: Oddly enough, Strasburg has been able to keep left-handed hitters in check, it’s the righties that have given Stras some trouble. Unfortunately for Strasburg, Freddie has not been one of those left-handed guys. Freeman loves hitting in Turner Field and while the Braves’ lineup is weak, I am not worried about Strasburg pitching around him. I absolutely love playing Freeman in cash and gpps. He’s great for cash games because he is patient at the plate and figures out ways to get on base and he’s cheap. I love him for GPPs because people never use him. Freeman has crushed RHs, sporting a .408, .388 and .390 wOBA the past three seasons. Strasburg hasn’t been the Strasburg pre-Tommy John Surgery. Though still dangerous on the mound, I’ll take Freeman and his ability to make Stras pay for his mistakes.
Adrian Gonzalez – 1B – Dodgers – vs. Andrew Cashner
BvP: 11-for-32, 1 2B, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: I thought A-Gon was going to pay huge dividends for me last night, but then the bottom fell out in other games and thus my bank account wasn’t full of 4 or 5 figures like I had hoped. But when something doesn’t work one night, it’s best to not write them off completely the next, and that’s why, along with his 4 HRs against Cashner, Adrian Gonzalez is on this list. Not only does he seem to crush his old team, Gonzalez gets to clean up the mess Utley, Seager and Turner make while hitting in front of Puig. Gonzalez has averaged a .367 wOBA against right handers. Cashner was prone to the long ball in 2015 moreso than previous seasons, allowing nearly 1 HR per 9 innings pitched.
Brian Dozier – 2B – Twins – vs. Yovani Gallardo
BvP: 5-for-10, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Analysis: Let’s face it, Gallardo isn’t getting better with age. HIs K/9 has dipped nearly 2 full points since the 2013 season. He’s still a ground ball pitcher that keeps the ball in the yard more often than not. Today we welcome the Bull Dozier to BvP for MVP as he can get it done against handed pitcher. Dozier typically has had more success against lefties in his career, but he’s also good against right handers. As a lead-off hitter that has success against both types of pitchers, Dozier is a perfect cash game play with GPP upside at the 2B position. This play, along with the next selection, come with some risk as it appears there’s some rain in the forecast. It’s supposed to be windy, so I am hoping the wind is blowing out at Camden Yards.
Chris Davis – 1B – Orioles – vs. Kyle Gibson
BvP: 0-for-5, 3 BB
Analysis: Speaking of the Twins-Orioles game, Crush Davis has yet to get a hit off of Kyle Gibson. So why is he on this list? I’ve got a hunch he’s due. But also because the walks tell me that Davis has had some patience at the plate with Gibson despite his 33% strikeout rate the past three seasons. Davis has crazy power with a near .300 ISO. You will be spending up for this bat, but this bat always has 2 dong potential. Again, this game has some weather issues, so be sure to check that out before lock. Also, this play and Dozier get bumps if the wind is blowing out.
Mike Leake – SP – Cardinals – vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
PvB: 53-for-208, 10 2B, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 11 BB, 38 Ks, 4 SB
Analysis: It’s been a tough road for Cardinals pitchers in this series thus far, but hopefully MIke can plug the Leake that has been sprung…All terrible puns aside, this pick is not flashy by any means. Leake has a low K/9 rate, but is a ground ball pitcher. He’s not going to light up the punchouts like Mike Tyson, but he can eat up innings and a win gives him that much more of a boost. He’s a punt play at the position and has a solid matchup on the mound opposite him in Juan Nicasio. Leake has held the big boys in check. His biggest adversary in Pittsburgh is David Freese, who is 8-for-16 with 2 2B, 1 HR and 4 RBI against him. Freese isn’t getting younger or better with age either, so I am not too worried about him. Cutch, Polanco early on in his career and Josh Harrison all have had their struggles with Leake in their careers. Add in the pitcher-friendliness of PNC Park and I am convinced Leake can thrive tonight.