Tough start to the week with yesterday’s picks, though the games that many might have expected to score a lot of runs did not. The Braves scored 8, the Mets bombarded the Phillies with 11 runs. The Rangers put up a solid line against the Astros (yes, I thought this game would get postponed when I wrote Tuesday’s BvP on Monday night).
Also, the Tigers and Royals combined to score double-digit runs.
Baseball is a funny sport and things always come back to the mean. Perhaps tonight is the night things return to normal. The Rays/Red Sox are at Fenway again, Texas and Houston could be a shootout unless King Cole can get those bats to whiff. Baltimore and Blue Jays, well, BvP might come into play in favor of the starting pitchers in that one. More to come on that game in a bit.
Tonight we have 11 games for a Wednesday slate. Typically, MLB will have more games split on hump day as the season goes along, but we have almost a full rack of games to choose from. The A’s were full of BvP options and I wasn’t going to recommend their whole team, so do what you want with their data. I won’t blame you for playing them. Another BvP possibility is Paul Goldschmidt, but since he is not at Chase Field, I have faded him for today’s write-up.
I have forgotten the past couple of articles, but all BvP data is thanks to dailybaseballdata.com. Check out the work they do over there and give them a shout out!
Time to earn my keep!
Jonathan Villar – SS/3B – Brewers – vs. Tommy Milone
BvP: 3-for-6, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: So far this season, Villar has been slotted at the top of the order, especially against lefties. A home game in the very hitter-friendly MIller Park against a lefty in a game with an O/U of 8.5 runs puts Villar in a stellar spot. He should come dirt cheap around the industry and can swipe a bag if needed. Milone has been roughed up early on this season and has allowed a .352 wOBA to right-handed bats. Villar only needs a HR to complete the cycle against Milone, while not a power hitter, Villar can find the seats from time to time.
Yasiel Puig – OF – Dodgers – vs. Julio Teheran
BvP: 4-for-6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Well, this was supposed to be a BvP play yesterday, but Teheran had his start pushed back to today, so here we are. I’ll stick to my guns with Spider Puig. Check out yesterday’s analysis for more on this matchup.
Matt Kemp – OF – Padres – vs. Jeff Locke
BvP: 4-for-7, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: By far my favorite BvP play of the slate. I’ll take Matt Kemp against a lefty any day of the week even if this game is at Petco. Kemp has a 15.3% HR/FB ratio the past three seasons and a combined wOBA around .345 in those same three season. He’s always been a lefty killer and the Padres are ranked 13th against lefties this season (no bad for the ol’ Dads). Anyway, he’s up against Jeff Locke who isn’t going to make a lot of bats miss. He’s a groundball pitcher that still allows nearly a HR/9 innings. Kemp isn’t going to break your bank and the upside is there with potential for low ownership due to the team he plays on, the late start and the ballpark.
Ian Kinsler – 2B, MIguel Cabrera, 1B, Justin Upton, OF – Tigers – vs. Ian Kennedy
Kinsler BvP: 5-for-7, 3 2B, 2 RBI
Cabrera BvP: 3-for-7, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Upton BvP: 3-for-8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: This is my first three-man stack of the year, and it will make or break my night. I am going to side on the fact that Ian Kennedy is still Ian Kennedy instead of this controlled fireballer we’ve seen the past two games. His peripherals show he still has meltdown potential left in him and I am hopeful it comes against the Tigers’ 6th-ranked offense. Kennedy has typically been a reverse-splits pitcher and all three guys above are solid against RH pitching with Upton changing his tune last season from a lefty killer to a righty smasher. Kennedy has a 0.66 ERA and only a .244 wOBA against righties. A meltdown is coming a la Yordano Ventura, let’s hope it’s tonight. All three have extra bases and if all three go off, they could make your night.
Ubaldo Jimenez – SP – Orioles – vs. Blue Jays
PvB: 37-for-185, 10 2B, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 29 BB, 53 Ks
Analysis: Sometimes data is so good you can’t refuse. Ubaldo Jimenez is not normally a pitcher I like to target, but he seems to pitch well at Camden Yards the past two seasons (6-2 last season). He’s been especially stellar against the Blue Jays. I understand that any moment the Jays could erupt and put this BvP data to shame, but Jimenez can pile up the strikeouts and so far against right-handers, the Jays have struck out at a 27.6% clip. The weather isn’t as warm as it will be so balls may not fly out as usual. The big 3 (Encarnacion, Donaldson and Bautista) have 1 combined HR against Ubaldy. If he keeps the walks limited, Jimenez could be in for a solid day.
Madison Bumgarner – SP – Giants – vs. Diamondbacks
PvB: 33-for-128, 5 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 14 BB, 33 Ks
Analysis: After no pitchers Tuesday, Madison Bumgarner is the second of two pitching options you may want to consider. After a poor outing against the Dodgers last time out, Maddy B gets to pitch in the comfort of AT&T Park, the best pitcher-friendly venue in the majors. The Diamondbacks have struck out against lefties at a near 28% clip, highest in the majors against southpaws. This should be the perfect storm as long as Bumgarner can tame Goldy in the middle of the lineup.
Here’s my BvP related lineup. I forgot to post this into my article earlier in the day, so for those checking it out now, here you go!
Good luck tonight. Thank you for reading and if you have any thoughts, comments, suggestions, etc., please comment below!