We have a huge 13-game slate on tap for tonight, but you can probably throw out of those due to weather (it’s possible it’s already been announced).
In Texas, we endure all kinds of weather. During the winter, it could 80 degrees one day and 14 degrees the next with snow flurries. Then comes spring and the height of tornado season and heavy rains (what most of the state is enduring right now). Summer hits, and the temperatures are unbearably hot through September. Your allergies kick off and on and you never really know if you should dress in layers (except summertime).
Texas and Houston are slated to kick off their budding division rivalry tonight, but with heavy rains expected today and possibly tomorrow, flooding has become one of many issues. I expect this game to be done before it begins, but you should follow DFW meteorologist Kevin Roth on Twitter @kevinrothwx. He puts out two forecasts during the week and tries to provide some coverage on the weekends. I’ve said this before, but he’s legit and usually accurate. He’s a definite must follow on Twitter if you play DFS baseball and golf.
Anyway, I hope the game plays somehow. But because of the weather concern, i’ve struck all possible BvP plays from this game for today’s BvP article.
Before today’s selections, we have two things to cover. First, I’ve someone maintained atop our MLB Expert Grading Leaderboard for the second week in a row. I don’t think I’ll be reaching any Lou Gehrig or Cal Ripken type of streak, but it’s nice to be in first (because if you’re not, you’re last, dammit).
Secondly, I started a lineup construction portion of BvP for MVP. I wanted to use my BvP plays, BvP plays I didn’t recommend and any other players I liked to see how well we can perform using BvP statistics to our advantage.
I will show you the week’s results every Monday, so for today we have only Friday’s lineup to review and have today’s lineup.
Now, on to the picks!
Jose Bautista – OF and Josh Donaldson – 3B – Blue Jays – vs. Mike Wright
Bautista BvP: 2-for-3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB
Donaldson BvP: 1-for-4, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Well, I certainly won’t blame you for wanting stack against Mike Wright tonight. He’s basically a guy who throws BP to hitters every time he takes the hill. Unfortunately, he has to take on the Blue Jays tonight. I think any Blue Jay is in play honestly, but Joey Bats and the Bringer of Rain (Twitter Handle that is an awesome nickname) are my two favorites. While the 25-foot right-field wall looks menacing, it’s the 7-foot high walls everywhere else in Camden Yards that have me salivating against Wright’s career .353 wOBA against right-handed batters. Both Bautista and Donaldson are lefty specialists, but they also destroy right-handed pitching. If you clicked the link to Wright’s pitching .gifs, you might have saw that he sported a 2.083 OPS to hitters when using his change-up. Ouch.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Marlins – vs. Stephen Strasburg
BvP: 12-for-32, 6 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 5 BB
Analysis: I am 0-for-2 against Strasburg this year, so the third time’s a charm (and it’s not Freddie Freeman this time). The Artist Formerly Known as Mike Stanton has absolutely owned Strasburg in his career with 9 extra-bases out of 12 total hits. Strasburg isn’t lighting the world on fire right now with his 3.70 SIERA, so his ERA is bound to increase and hopefully it starts tonight. Strasburg also has a low K-rate to start the year, so perhaps he isn’t throwing hot mustard just yet. Stanton is another guy who eats lefties alive but also can make a right-handed pitcher look silly. Stanton loves the Marlins’ home ballpark (crushed one last night) and could easily make things look easy today against Stras, a pitcher that is prone to some road struggles.
Yasiel Puig – OF – Dodgers – vs. Julio Teheran
BvP: 4-for-6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Lots of pitchers on today’s slate that struggle with control. Teheran has some electric-looking pitches, but he can’t ever be consistent. Teheran is the epitome of home/road split pitchers. He usually performs well at home and falls apart on the road. So far, Teheran hasn’t been able to keep it together at home. Enter Yasiel Puig, who has had some early success against Teheran (but really, who hasn’t? Ask Bryce Harper). The game venue isn’t exactly great, but we will plug along anyway. The Dodgers have some injuries on their roster, so Puig is going to hit right in the meat of the order. If lefties A-Gon, Grandal, Utley and Seager can get on base for Puig (based on his lineup slot), Puig could have ample opportunity to score fantasy points.
Mookie Betts – OF and Chris Young – OF – Red Sox – vs. Drew Smyly
Betts BvP: 5-for-12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB
Young BvP: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: There’s a lot of reason to have David Ortiz in this 2-man stack, but I couldn’t pull the trigger (even though Smyly has given up 2 HRs to lefties already this season). I like these two right-handed bats against Smyly and the Green Monster. Vegas absolutely hates Smyly in this game. His opposing pitcher is Joe Kelly and this is the line: -115 Bos, O/U 8.5 runs. If you aren’t favored in a game that’s nothing more than a coin flip on the moneyline with a lot of projected runs, there’s something to be said about your potential performance. The Green Monster eats home runs, but allows for extra-base hits. Young has seen Smyly only a handful of PAs, but Young is a platoon player for lefties and I will always take a long, hard look at him against southpaws. Betts can beat Smyly just about anywhere. Betts can park one over the fence, stretch a double into a triple or swipe a couple of bags. Lots of potential points on tap for Betts, the Red Sox leadoff man.
Lastly, here’s the first night of results of our BvP Lineup Construction Tracker. It was a solid night for our first effort. This will be tracked using FanDuel until FD blocks me from playing from Texas next month. Check out my lineup from Friday, April 15.
Here’s what I have come up with for tonight
Narrative: I started with Pineda, who seems awfully cheap against the A’s tonight. I fully expect Pineda to get the win with the Yanks at home against a lefty journeyman. This allowed me to put in the big boppers: Bautista, Stanton and Donaldson. Unfortunately, this didn’t allow me to play Betts too and Chris Young is super cheap at $2,000 on FD. Castro is rejuvenated in New York, Simmons has a solid line against Mat Latos, who is bound to meltdown soon. Paulsen is a salary saver for the Rockies up against Big Pasta and Mesoraco is still looking for his first homerun of the season and is up against a lefty in JDLR.