Boy, yesterday was a rough day in the BvP department. In fact, it was an overall rough day for bats.
If you were reliant upon some of my picks yesterday, I am truly sorry. The data was there to justify the picks, but variance got the best of us.
It’s OK though, it’ll come back around again!
Tonight we are inundated with a slew of BvP options. In an effort to not oversaturate the picks, we must narrow down our options. This will be the second BvP write up that will not feature a pitcher. Sorry folks, the data just hasn’t been there yet.
To weed out some of the picks, I wanted to focus on one thing and one thing only: home runs. However, I couldn’t resist a mini Royals stack, which has nothing to do with home runs at all.
Outside of the Royals, the following are fellas who all have potential of taking one deep on their opponent.
Chris Davis – 1B/OF – Orioles – vs. Joe Kelly
BvP: 4-for-7, 1 2B, 2 BB
Analysis: With an ISO of .292 the past three seasons, Crush Davis is the epitome of power. Joe Kelly is epitome of spare. He flashes a high 90s fast ball, but this one-trick pony has been a popular DFS target for some time. I almost went with Davis last night and he would’ve been my best recommendation compared to the other jabronis, but tonight we very much recommend his middle-of-the-order bat in a game that could once again be a slugfest at Fenway. Set at O/U 9 runs with two pitchers that have command issues, this one could get ugly quickly.
Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves – vs. Stephen Strasburg
BvP: 12-for-31, 2 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 6 BB
Analysis: Look who’s back…back again. Freddie’s back, tell some friends. Guess who’s back? Guess who’s back? Guess who’s back….and yea, my Eminem parody is now over. Anyway, Freddie Freeman is once against on the BvP list against the very same pitcher we selected him against last week. Freddie went a very disheartening 0-for-3, but we must go back to the well. The patience and the pop are there in the numbers and Strasburg didn’t exactly pitch great last week against the Braves. Sporting a 1.50 ERA, Stras’ xFIP and SIERA, 4.05 and 4.60, respectively, let us perhaps Strasburg should’ve had a few more runs attached to his stat line. I will still contend Freddie is one of my favorite 1B to use in cash games because of his consistency and for GPPs because no one ever owns the guy (unless he’s at Coors).
Nolan Arenado – 3B – Rockies – vs. Jake Peavy
BvP: 5-for-11, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Analysis: Speaking of Coors, this pick was a no-brainer. While I made some tough cuts to get my picks to six, Arenado was not even in the conversation for removal. A reverse-splits hitter, Arenado has been tough for right-handed pitchers in his career. This Coors game, a day after a flame out (in Coors terms anyway), is set at an O/U of 11.5 runs. This is by far the highest projected total of the season thus far. Peavy is not the Peavy of old, and a lot of pitchers struggle due to the Coors factor, no matter the talent. Peavy has been prone to the long ball the past three seasons, averaging around 1 HR/9. Domo arigato, Mr. Arenado.
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Diamondbacks – vs. Alex Wood
BvP: 4-for-9, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: I just clicked the “Easy” button for you again, not that you needed me to. But Paul Goldschmidt against a lefty is going to be an automatic play any day of the year. Having faced Alex Wood very little and already having 2 HRs, tells me Goldschmidt should continue to take Alex to the WOOD-shed. Wood LUMBERED in 2015, seeing his K/9 dip by 2 full strikeouts while seeing his wOBA against right-handers balloon to a .343 from a .288 in 2014 and a .307 prior to that. His K/9 was in the 9s those two seasons and I fully believe there is a direct correlation to his strikeouts and his struggles. Wood didn’t get off to a great start to 2016 after allowing 5 ER in 5 innings to the Giants. He didn’t give up a HR in that game, so let’s just say he’s due tonight. Enter Goldy.
Alex Gordon – OF and Lorenzo Cain – OF – Royals – vs. Scott Feldman
Gordon BvP: 10-for-23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SB
Cain BvP: 7-for-13, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 3 SB
Analysis: I faded Howie Kendrick and Pablo Sandoval for this Royals stack. Up against my arch-nemesis Scott Feldman, the Royals are in a great spot to do some damage. This game is set at 8.5 runs with a coin flip for a moneyline, so Vegas already is saying they aren’t really comfortable with Feldman or his counterpart Yordano Venture. The Swan also got off to a rough start in his 2016 debut, but now gets to pitch at Minute Maid, a place he hasn’t faired too well in anyway. While Cain and Gordon have combined for only 3 extra-base hits in 36 at-bats, they have stolen 5 bases between each other. Let’s not forget Feldman is aging. With age comes decline, with decline comes better opportunities for batters. Feldman has see his production dip the past two seasons, so I can’t imagine a scenario where he starts to get better at 33 years old, especially with his track record mediocrity. He’s only a substitute for the injured Lance McCullers anyway, so take your shots at Scooter while the opportunity knocks.