Two days in a row, Aaron Judge has not come through for the Value Index.
Maybe pitchers have figured him out.
Maybe he is just in a funk.
He’s been striking out at an alarming rate Meanwhile, his NL rookie counterpart Cody Bellinger continues to stroke home runs and is certainly a shoe-in NL Rookie of the Year, but I think you can make a case that he also is the NL MVP. Judge was once that person, but it’s Bellinger who has a leg up…for now.
Bellinger and Judge are on today’s slate, a 10-game affair which is larger than usual for a Thursday.
We have a lot of pitching options that are in the upper pricing tier, and a lot of junk after that.
I am not going to be able to play much, if at all, tonight due to some family circumstances back in my hometown I have to tend to, but if I get to make a lineup, I think it’s worth pairing two pitchers at the top and stack the A’s. I think they are sneaky and are really starting to hit the ball well as a team. We will see how it goes if it comes to that.
Now as far as my official picks are concerned, let’s get to those picks!
Analysis: The Yankee stack is going to be the chalk tonight, that’s pretty clear. Estrada, the Blue Jays starter and Yankee opponent, has been a gas can this season. In 3 starts against the Yanks, Estrada has allowed 14 ER in 15 innings and 4 home runs. Guess who has hit half of those home runs for the Yanks against Estrada? Yep, Gary Sanchez, who actually has 4 dingers in 11 ABs against him.
Analysis: I mentioned how I like the A’s tonight and Healy is part of a two-man duo that I like the most from this team. Oakland is taking on lefty Wade Miley of the Orioles. While I have enjoyed playing lefties against Oakland, Miley is not a pitcher I ever play, against anyone. I wouldn’t roster Miley against the Corpus Christi Hooks. Healy comes in having recorded 5 hits in his past 3 games and faces a lefty, a handedness that he crushes. Against southpaws this season, Healy has a .448 wOBA, .315 ISO, 34% hard contact rate and 7 home runs.
Analysis: A 56.6% hard contact rate and a .313 wOBA against lefties just doesn’t seem to jive. There has to be some positive regression coming for Oakland’s version of Khris Davis. He’s really starting to warm up at the plate having collected 7 hits in his past 5 games, including 3 multi-hit efforts. He is coming into today’s game with 3 straight games with a home run. I don’t normally like to target guys for home runs with streaks such as that, because it’s more likely for him not to continue the streak than to continue it, BUT I think Davis has multi-hit upside in this matchup with RBI potential.
Analysis: Mike Moustakas versus a right-handed bat has become quite the 2017 DFS pasttime for me. Moose has certainly had a breakout season, posting 32 home runs this season. He hasn’t driven in a lot of runs, but the home runs and average are there and he hasn’t really seen his price inflate much because of it. Tonight the Royals take on Lance Lynn, a hefty righty, who gives up hefty hits to lefties. In his career, Moose is 3-for-9 with 2 home runs against Lynn, who has allowed a .337 wOBA and a 1.98 HR/9 rate to lefties this season.
Analysis: I like the high-priced guys tonight, and while I think throwing Kyle Gibson in as a punt play is a boom or bust tournament option, Brad Peacock is one of the lower-priced pitchers I am comfortable playing tonight. Pairing him with deGrom and then stacking A’s is probably what I will be doing having limited time to play multiple lineups. Anyway, Peacock has one of the better matchups with K upside on the board. The White Sox have been mediocre all season long and you can throw out the last two games against Keuchel and McHugh. Keuchel isn’t right and McHugh has always been a reverse-splits pitcher who pitches worse on the road. After two blowouts, Peacock will hopefully be needed to pitch deep into this one. The White Sox are 29th in team wOBA against RH pitching and strike out 22.9% of the time. Peacock has a 10+ K/9 rate and some filthy pitches to get the Sox to swing at out of the zone.