My apologies for being out yesterday, the past two nights and my health were awful.
I can’t explain the pain I was in Wednesday night, but I was miserable.
But I’ve seemed to have recovered and can get back to functioning again.
Tonight we have a 15-game slate, the second of the week. I am not even going to attempt to pick a pitcher I like this early. Pitching has been so finicky this season, that it’s becoming hard to trust anyone outside of Kershaw and Thor.
Corey Kluber looks like a slam dunk against the White Sox, but he’s been giving up 60.7% hard contact to RH bats. I can’t tell, since I haven’t seen him pitch, if something is wrong with him or what. But that’s a concerning number and there are a few BvP candidates against him that are intriguing if he is going to continue giving up a lot of hard contact.
Anyway, I am focusing on four bats today, one might not come as much of a shocker.
So let’s get to it, shall we?
Analysis: No bat is hotter than this guy right here. Whatever he did in Korea to help him in the majors, it’s working so far. It’ll be interesting to see what we are saying about this guy in a couple of months. Will it be “oh, remember when Thames was going crazy in April?” Or will it be “MVP” talks? Lots of baseball left, but this guy is crushing it, and DraftKings decided to give us the Adam Wainwright discount tonight…because Wainwright has been dominant? I don’t know. It’s a strange pricing considering Wainwright has been giving up a 46.4% hard contact rate to lefties this season to go along with a wOBA of .522 AND a HR/9 rate of 2.70. These numbers are likely unsustainable for Wainwright, but as long as we he is giving it up, we might as well take advantage (This also goes for Travis Shaw, but he isn’t on this list).
Analysis: Cruz might be one of the most recommended players from me by the end of the year because he is going to face a lot of lefties and tonight is one of those nights. Cruz has looked as if he is starting to stroke the bat a bit better of late and gets a date with Oakland youngester Sean Manaea, who has been a solid pitcher to start the season (and the Mariners have been unbelievably bad against lefties, so a possible pitching option for sure!). Anyway, Cruz dominates lefties, this shouldn’t be news to you. But Cruz has a great start to his career against Manaea, going 2-for-5 with a HR and a walk.
Analysis: These are the kind of puzzle pieces I like that fit together – reverse splits batter facing a reverse splits pitcher in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. As people flock to Shaw (which I do not blame you), Turner is a great option as long as he plays (dealing with a hand issue). But since 2014, Turner has a .388 wOBA against RH pitching! Walker has allowed a .330 wOBA to opposing RH bats and a 1.49 HR/9 rate in that same time frame. Now Walker is going to pitch at home where runs will be scored, so expect those numbers to inflate for Taijuan.
Dee Gordon – 2B – Miami Marlins – $4,300
Analysis: Welcome to the Value Index, Dee! Gordon has quietly been on a tear for the Marlins. He has FOUR 3-hit games in his last 10 and 17 total hits in that same frame. Trevor Cahill is on the mound for the Padres and the Marlins to get to hopefully pick apart this journeyman. Gordon’s recommendation comes not only because he is on fire, but because he has the numbers against Cahill in his career to support the play. Cahill also has been very good against lefties to start the season, a ridiculous number that absolutely will not maintain throughout the course of the year because they don’t even come close to his career numbers against lefties. Anyway, Gordon hits atop the Marlins lineup and once he is on base against Cahill, we should expect him to run as he has 4 steals against him already. For the record, Dee is 7-for-17 with 2 2Bs and 3 BBs against Cahill in his career.