Hello there everyone, we are into the third week of the MLB season and already we are starting to see trends throughout each team in the league.
The Brewers continue to scorch the Earth with their offense while the Blue Jays continue to eat dirt and are on a losing streak they can’t wait to end (will tonight be the night?).
Pitching has been all over the place unless your name is Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner or Max Scherzer. Does anyone else feel like pitching has been rather unreliable to start the season?
I mean I easily cashed two cash game lineups with ease last week with negative points from a pitcher on DraftKings, incluing a -16 spot from Steven Wright. That shouldn’t happen.
Nevertheless, I hope you aren’t ailing in the first couple of weeks of the season. And if you are, just try to remember this is baseball and things always come around for teams as they get hot while others start to incur struggles. Teams that are struggling now are getting their struggles out now.
Tonight we have the first of two 15-game slates this week. The other comes Friday. Tonight will be the first 15-game slate of the season and it certainly should be interesting. We have a couple of stud aces toeing the rubber tonight and lots of cheap pitching options, one of which I expect to be ultra chalk (and he’s a member of the Index today).
Before we get to picks, today is another premium day, so you will get a couple of freebie picks, but then to see the rest and other premium content options on our site, you can sign up for a free 7-day trial or join for a low monthly rate.
Let’s get after it shall we?
Analysis: Welcome to the value chalk pitcher of the slate. Luis Severino has filthy pitches and has shown a ton of K upside so far this season. It just so happens he is facing arguably the worst offensive team in baseball – the Chicago White Sox. Ervin Santana just lit this team up and now it is Severino’s turn. The White Sox strike out at a 24.7% clip so far this season and have a measly 25% hard contact rate against RH pitching. Severino has shown to be a reverse splits pitcher early in his career, but with his ability to rack up Ks, Severino offers a solid floor with a lot of upside at his price tonight.
Analysis: A lot of people like to roster Manny Machado when he is up against lefty starters. I won’t argue the thought process behind it, but Machado is much more effective against RH pitching. The Orioles are all over my radar tonight, facing 40-year-old batting practice pitcher Bronson Arroyo, who, you guessed it, is a reverse splits pitcher over the past three season. Arroyo has been lit up for 11 ER in two starts this season and the gauntlet continues tonight against the Orioles, a top-5 team against RH pitching so far. As for Machado, he leads the team in wOBA against RH pitching at .366. He owns a .226 ISO and a 33.2% hard contact rate. This game is at the Great American Ballpark, and is one of the best hitter’s venues in the majors. The Orioles SHOULD not have any trouble scoring runs against Arroyo and his .403 wOBA and 36.4% hard contact rate against RH pitching.