It should be an interesting night on Tuesday for the 14-game slate of MLB action. There are a ton of mid-level pitching options on the slate so ownership percentages could vary greatly. So, picking the right pitcher could be the key to success. Without having to worry much about ownership percentages, I’m just going with the three options that I think have the most upside on the slate given their price. I think there will be some chalky stacks on the hitters’ side including my top two stacks along with the Nationals, Indians and Astros. Everything else should be fairly low owned.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Madison Bumgarner (FD-$10,200 / DK-$9,700)
Bumgarner is not back to his ace form yet after missing three months. He has pitched so-so in two starts, both against the Padres. On the plus side, I like that his pitch count has been around 100 in his first two starts and it should go up from there. I also have confidence that Bumgarner will continue to pitch better as the rest of the season goes on. He has pitched better at home during his career, which is where he will be as he faces the Pirates. Go ahead and give me an ace pitcher, who although he hasn’t pitched like an ace isn’t priced like one either. I’d rather be too early than too late on his breakout game where he looks like “Madison Bumgarner” again.
Value
Charlie Morton (FD-$8,600 / DK-$8,800)
While the end results for Morton over his last few games have only been average his underlying numbers led me to believe he is poised for a dominant outing. Through his last three starts, he has induced a 34% soft contact rate with just a 17% hard contact rate. He continues to get groundballs at a high clip of 51.1% and still has a strong strikeout rate of 24.7% in those starts. He has been burned by the long ball in those starts but with a matchup against the Phillies who rank 27th in ISO versus righties this season, Morton should be able to limit the damage. He also has strikeout upside with the Phillies striking out 23.5% of the time (6th highest) against righties.
Darkhorse
Jose Berrios (FD-$8,800 / DK-$7,100)
Berrios comes with plenty of risk pitching against the Dodgers in L.A. I would not touch him on FanDuel at his $8,800 salary but on Draftkings he is a value with some upside at just $7,100. He pitched well in his last outing against the Yankees allowing just one run in 6+ innings with five strikeouts. While the Dodgers have good numbers versus righties this season they do strike out at a fairly high 22.7% clip (8th highest) and with the addition of the pitchers’ spot in the NL park, Berrios has some strikeout upside. He is only a GPP option but could produce enough fantasy points to be a solid value option to get in some extra high-priced bats.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Yankees vs. Luis Castillo
The Yankees return home to face the hard-throwing rookie right-hander Luis Castillo. Castillo has allowed seven home runs through his first six starts with a 1.80 HR/9 to both sides of the plate. With a hard thrower pitching against hitters that make a lot of hard contact the ball could be flying out of Yankee Stadium.
Aaron Judge (FD-$4,600 / DK-$5,400) – Judge has a 48.5% hard hit rate versus righties and a .516 wOBA with a .466 ISO versus righties at home this season.
Brett Gardner (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,400) – Gardner has a six-game hitting streak that has included a pair of home runs. He has a 36.7% hard hit rate versus righties with a .360 wOBA and .216 ISO this season.
Gary Sanchez (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,400) – Sanchez has a 37.1% hard hit rate versus righties this season and has been better at home this season with .350 wOBA and .235 ISO.
Didi Gregorius (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,300) – Gregorius is batting .545 over his last six games including three home runs. He has a .381 wOBA and .240 ISO versus righties this year.
Diamondbacks vs. Mike Foltynewicz
Foltynewicz has pitched well at times this season but continues to struggle with left-handed hitters allowing a .373 wOBA and 1.70 HR/9 this season. While the Diamondbacks’ lefties should lead the way don’t ignore the top of the order righties who perform very well at home.
Jake Lamb (FD-$3,800 / DK-$5,300) – Lamb holds a .420 wOBA and .307 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season.
David Peralta (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,500) – Peralta is batting .381 since the All-Star break and has a .397 wOBA and .225 ISO at home versus righties this season.
AJ Pollock (FD-$3,600 / DK-$5,100) – Pollock is hot with eight hits including seven for extra-bases over his last four games. He has also had success against Foltynewicz going 5-for-8 with a double and a home run.
Paul Goldschmidt (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,200) – Goldschmidt has a .468 wOBA and .321 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Contrarian Stack
Tigers vs. Danny Duffy
The Tigers are quite familiar with Duffy and have had quite a bit of success against the left-hander. They also just faced him in Kansas City last week putting up four runs on nine hits over five innings. Duffy’s ERA is 4.44 on the road this season and righties have done the most damage against Duffy on the road in particular with a .364 wOBA and 1.51 HR/9.
Nick Castellanos (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,600) – Castellanos has a .388 wOBA and .372 ISO versus left-handed pitchers this season and has a solid .292 average against Duffy in 24 career at-bats.
Ian Kinsler (FD-$3,800 / DK-$3,800) – Kinsler has five hits over his last two games and has a .353 wOBA and .260 ISO versus lefties this season.
Justin Upton (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,100) – Upton is riding a seven-game hitting streak that has included six extra-base hits. He is 6-for-14 with two doubles and two homers off Duffy.
Victor Martinez (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,600) – Martinez is catcher eligible on FanDuel and has had great success against Duffy going 13-for-37 (.351) with three homers during his career.
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