*** I’m using DraftKings’ pricing, so the picks will be geared towards that site. But assuming there isn’t a major difference in salary, these plays can be used anywhere. And as always, make sure to check for the latest injury news and lineup changes. ***
Mario Chalmers (MEM) $4,600 v. Nuggets
He’s going to be on 100% of my teams tonight. Mike Conley and Courtney Lee are both expected to miss this one, and the only other PG on the roster is Elliot Williams (who was signed off the street yesterday). That means big minutes for Rio tonight against a bad team. Chalmers posted 52 FP in 39 minutes last time out against OKC; a game in which he came off the bench and Courtney Lee played just over a half before getting injured. Play him or perish.
Shane Larkin (BKN) $4,700 v. Magic
I was deciding between Westbrook and Larkin for PG2 tonight, and ultimately went with Shane. The Thunder should dismantle the Lakers, and it’s hard for me to see more than 29 minutes for Westbrook tonight. That doesn’t mean he can’t get 60 FP and pay off his salary, but it’ll be tough. On a full slate, I’ll sprinkle him in but primarily look elsewhere. So if you want to go with Russ, that’s perfectly fine.
Jarrett Jack recently went down with a season-ending knee injury, and Shane Larkin has been inserted as the starter. His minutes haven’t exploded, rather they’ve steadily creeped into the range of 30. The Magic have been around league average defending opposing PGs, but I still have Larkin down for 27 FP tonight. He represents a nice value.
Victor Oladipo (ORL) $6,600 v. Nets
Elfrid Payton remains on the shelf, so that means another 38 minutes or so at the point for Oladipo. I like that. Lopez is a decent rim protector, but Victor should be able to get to the rack with relative ease. You want to use Oladipo on nights where he can score at the rim as his jump shot is still unreliable. Big minutes as the primary ball handler + layups/dunks + usual array of peripherals = great night.
James Johnson (TOR) $3,500 v. Wizards
These picks tend to read like an injury report, but that’s the nature of the beast. DeMarre Carroll remains out, and James Johnson stands to benefit. He’s played 23 and 26 minutes in the previous two DeMarreless games, and he scores a little over .9 FP/min on the season. You’re looking at an average projection of 22.5 FP for $3,500 (nearly 6.5x value). As a little bonus, a few people will be scared off by his 7.5 FP performance two games ago when he was a popular value play. That one can be explained away, as he was dealing with LeBron. Otto Porter should prove to be a much simpler task.
Tobias Harris (ORL) $5,700 v. Nets
I think you could get away with a big Orlando stack tonight. I expect Harris’ ownership to be severely depressed following three straight games where he’s failed to crack 20 FP. That said, he’s seen 33+ minutes in eight of his last nine games, and a match-up with the Nets means he should see a 5% bump to his per minute production. I think he’s a lock for 5x value, and he’s got 7x+ upside.
Anthony Davis (NOP) $10,600 v. Pacers
Davis has posted monster outings in both of his last two games (52.0 and 61.5, respectively), and he gets the Pacers tonight (#8 in terms of pace). It should be a fast and close game, and AD will have plenty of opportunity to rack up points. If I’m spending up on one guy, and there’s certainly enough value out there for you to spend up somewhere, it’s Davis.
Jabari Parker (MIL) $4,700 v. Mavericks
Parker has played 30+ minutes in each of his last four games, and he’s ripped off 10+ shots in three of them. Even though his minutes have been steadily increasing of late, his price is the lowest it’s been in any of his last 10 games at $4,700. The Mavs have been weak against PFs all season, and opponents see just under a 10% boost (on average) to their per minute production. Granted, we’re talking about Anthony Davis, but he torched Dallas for 50+ FP twice in the past week. This could be a breakout game for Jabari.
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $7,100 v. Nets
I love the center position tonight, and I’ll be using a C in the utility spot almost across the board. So now that you know I A) am all over the Magic tonight and B) plan on rolling out two centers, it should come as no surprise that Nikola Vucevic is my favorite play. The Nets have been horrible against opposing bigs, and Vuc should see just under a 15% bump (!) to his per minute production tonight. It’s rare for a non-injury replacement to project at 6x+ value, but I have Vucevic down for 43 FP tonight. At only $7,100, you can’t beat it. I will be building lineups around him.
Enes Kanter (OKC) $4,700 v. Lakers
Let me start with this. Those are Enes Kanter’s numbers in two games against the Lakers this season. Despite playing only 22.5 MPG, he’s averaged 36.9 DK points per game. Come on… The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league guarding opposing centers, and Kanter absolutely feasts on the souls of Laker big men. This one should be a blowout (OKC -14.5, Lakers on the back end of a B2B), and Kanter is probably locked into 22-24 minutes. That should be enough for him to hit value.
Good luck tonight!