*** I’m using DraftKings’ pricing, so the picks will be geared towards that site. But assuming there isn’t a major difference in salary, these plays can be used anywhere. And as always, make sure to check for the latest injury news and lineup changes. ***
STARS OF THE NIGHT
SF Paul George $8,800
I have George projected as the highest scoring player on the slate at just under 50 FP. A match-up with the Wizards is great for opposing fantasy players in general, but it’s off the charts for small forwards. PG13 should see an 18% bump to his per minute production tonight, and the game will likely stay relatively close (IND -6.5).
PF Paul Millsap $8,100
Millsap is the safest $8k+ play on the board. The Bucks’ defense (especially against opposing PFs) leaves much to be desired, and the game carries with it the second highest total (209, ATL -4.5) on the night. A close game with a high total means lots of fantasy goodness. Millsap can do it all, and as long as he plays 30+ minutes, he’s a lock for 40+ FP.
PF Kevin Love $7,100
There’s talk that LeBron might sit this one out. If he does, Love is my #1 play (and if he doesn’t, Love is still a very good play). PFs tend to see a 10% bump to their per minute stats against the Rockets, which would put Love around 1.25 FP/min. That’s superstar level production at only $7,100. Capela will keep Love around the basket on defense (more rebounds) and will have trouble sticking with him on the perimeter (more points). All good things. I’m expecting 40+ FP tonight, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he got as high as 60.
Note: If Derrick Rose remains out, Jimmy Butler gets a bump. He’s an okay play as is, but he’s a good/great play without Rose.
TOP VALUE PLAYS
PF Nene Hilario $4,200
Marcin Gortat remains out, and Nene’s minutes have been trending upwards. He should see 27+ tonight, and he’s a near-lock to make value. If you’re deciding between Nene and Gooden, go with Nene and the higher ceiling.
PG Marcus Smart $4,200
Smart should see around 28 minutes in a great match-up with the Suns. The Suns are among the worst in the league in defending opposing PGs as is; throw in the fact that Brandon Knight is hobbled and Tyson Chandler is getting squeezed from the rotation, and it could be open season for Celtic PGs. At $4,200, it won’t take much for Smart to make value, and he’s capable of blowing that number out of the water.
SG Tyler Johnson $4,200
Goran Dragic is out tonight, so there will be an extra 30 or so backcourt minutes up for grabs. Most people will instinctively gravitate towards Beno Udrih. He’s starting after all, but Udrih has been fairly unimpressive this season averaging under .7 FP/min. He’s averaged 15 FP and 24 minutes per game over his last two, and even with a 6-minute bump, that’s likely not going to get it done on a full slate. I think the sharper play is Tyler Johnson. He averages nearly .8 FP/min and is more than capable of handling extended minutes at PG. He’s a better player, his minutes are safer, and he’s got more upside.
SF Kelly Oubre, Jr. $3,600
Otto Porter has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Pacers, so Oubre gets a bump. Kelly had a nice five game stretch back in December when he was seeing regular minutes; averaging roughly 24 DK points per game. Given the utter lack of depth for Washington, Oubre could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight.
Note: If Pau Gasol ends up missing tonight’s game, Joakim Noah becomes the #1 center option on the board.
PF Markieff Morris $4,300
Len is out, Chandler’s minutes are down, and with the trade deadline approaching, Morris is being showcased. That means he should get roughly 27 minutes tonight in a good match-up with the Celtics. With more obvious value options at PF out there (like Nene and Gooden), you should be able to get Markieff at extremely low ownership.
SG James Harden $9,700
Everyone is going to be on Jimmy Butler tonight. Everyone. Although the Cavs play at one of the slowest paces in the league (and generally play good defense), SG has been the one position that hasn’t seen their per minute production drop off the map. More Tristan Thompson and less Mozgov is great for Harden, as it should be easier for him to get his at the rim v. TT. His price is roughly $1k lower than it was two weeks ago, and he will be under-owned. He makes for an interesting tournament play.
Good luck tonight!